Hello and welcome to the blog.
So as we now enter into Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere and all the Hype of summer is almost over, where do we stand on Global lower Troposphere Temperature?.
Many mainstream media outlets and publications of the immense "Heat Wave" in the Northern hemisphere certainly projected a "doom and gloom" outlook for us human beings, however the June-July-August Lower Troposphere temperatures did not reflect such.
June - 0.21°c
July - 0.32°c
August- 0.19°c
The year 2017 came out as below.
June - 0.22°c
July - 0.29°c
August - 0.41°c
As you can see from the above the LTT July 2018 was only 0.03°c above that of 2017 with August 2018 well below 2017 at -0.22°c difference, so i guess the answer to did the "Global heat wave" have any impact on "climate" must be NO it didn't. even though it was indeed an exceptional summer for Europe it did not reflect on a global scale.
Moving on to ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation ).
Again many Outlets JMA NOAA NASA BOM suggest that there is a 60-70% chance that this year El Nino conditions will prevail in the Pacific at 5n5s along the equator, however monitoring this very closely if this situation was to occur then at best we would see a CP (Central Pacific ) based event. confined to region 3.4.
the next set of graphs show easterly progression during the last 8 days.
29.08.2018
31.08.2018
As we can see there is evidence of 29°c SST's moving into region 3.4 (black dot) however the easterly progression is not evident.
Noticeable is region 1+2 remains 19-21°c throughout with upwelling off the coast of Peru still presenting strong easterlies.
The current amount of Tropical storms evolving in the NW Pacific suggests we have not seen a breakdown in the walker cell yet, however the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) in recent months July/August has had a negative daily feedback, this is not indicative as a negative trend as it happens regularly throughout the year.
Teleconnections 2017 vs 2018.
PDO (Pacific decadal Oscillation(
AO (Arctic Oscillation)
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
Values for 2017 at this point were.
PDO....July -0.49 2017 -0.23 ..2018
AO .....July 0.634 2017 0.612 ...2018
NAO...July 1.26 2017 1.39 ....2018
As we can see if the Teleconnections are to play out as they did during Autumn and winter of 2017 all of the above need to start trending NEGATIVE.
Currently the NAO is 0.90 positive. AO is 1.52 Positive PDO is -0.34 Negative. 2018
2017 index NAO was -1.10 negative AO was 0.150 Positive PDO was -0.62 Negative.
My observations suggest the Key players in winter (above) have some way to go before we reach "bad" winter indications, we also must take into consideration that 2017 was a La Nina year this year will not, however Modoki (CP event) is likely to reflect in winter values.
Will the current high Blocking continue? highly unlikely, will low pressure become more prevalent as we progress through Autumn? very likely, overall i can at this time see any specific signals for a front loaded winter either in the Teleconnections or in the very unreliable CFSv2 outlooks even though CFSv2 is renowned for it's biased towards a "warmer" scenario.
Thanks for stopping by and stay tuned for further updates.
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