ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, However SST's have undergone rapid cooling in the previous few weeks, and weak La Nińa state is not out of the Question at present.
During June, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean,
SST anomalies across most of the eastern Pacific decreased during the month. The latest weekly ENSO indices were +0.7°C in Niño-4 and +0.4°C in Niño-3.4, with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (10.7).
Weakly suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weakly enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line, Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the far eastern Pacific. Upwelling off the coast of SA is now evident, this will ultimately further cool the Eastern Pacific regions 1+2.
The latest plume of North American Multi-model Ensemble forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index shows a rapid transition toward ENSO-neutral by the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August), however I'm not overly convinced at this point that we will not see a winter La Nińa state take effect in December.
Note
Declining Equatorial SST's related to a Neutral ENSO state, may be reflected in UAH lower Tropospheric Temperature during August.
I can not see a substantial rise in GT (Global Temperatures) during July.
Thanks for dropping in,
DIBirch.
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