In recent publications
(https://eos.org/articles/more-frequent-el-nino-events-predicted-by-2040) (https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2022/03/07/el-nio-events-will-become-more-frequent-by-2040-even-if-carbon-emissions-slashed-study-finds/?sh=11b474867655) it is suggested that the ENSO state called El Niño will/ is becoming more intense and frequent compared to its counter part La Niña.
What is El Niño and La Niña?
• Both terms relate to the Pacific ocean, NINO3.4 (5S-5N; 170W-120W). The region that has large variability on El Niño time scales, and that is closer (than NINO3) to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the far western Pacific.
• NINO1+2 (0-10S, 80-90W). The region that typically warms first when an El Niño event develops.
Although there are two other regions (3 & 4) a typical event can be assumed by looking at the central Pacific and east Pacific, regions 3.4 and 1+2 respectively .
1982-83
Was a very strong El Niño with 15 -3 monthly periods.
1997-98
Was a very strong El Niño with 13 - 3 monthly periods.
2015-16
Was a very strong El Niño with 18 - 3 monthly periods.
2023-24
Classified as a strong with a possible 11 - 3 monthly periods.
Departure from the normal
1982/83
Had a maximum departure from normal (0.5°c) of 2.2. for 3 X3 monthly periods.
1997/98
Had a maximum departure of 2.4 for 2x3 monthly periods.
2015/16
Had a maximum departure of 2.6 for 2x3 monthly periods.
2023/24
Had a maximum departure of 2. For 1x3 monthly periods, and is expected to terminate in the month of May.
Below is ENSO graphed with El Niño and La Niña events since 1986 are clearly visible.
Note - there is neither any significant uptick in El Niño nor is there any Indication Niño is longer in duration.
In fact if anything, the ENSO state of La Niña is more prominent in recent times (Blue).
Over my 24+ years of study and research in Ocean & Atmospheric Science it has become apparent that "Climate Science" has been invaded by an Elite few hell bent on corruption and deception, where peer reviewers are hand picked and vetted to accommodate those pushing the corruption.
Of course those of us that have alternative data and results from extensive studies, find it near impossible to get those studies published.
I will however continue to question authorities and agencies where Climate Science is not reflected truthfully, and hope that others will "push back" and reveal the Truth.
Author - David I Birch
𝕏 - @Climate_Earth20
19:04:2024.
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