Most of us at some point are a little Biased when it comes to seeing Snowfall, the scenery is most wonderful draped in crisp white snow however there is a point at which even the most avid snow fan has to "step back" and evaluate the risks involved with excessive amounts of the white fluffy stuff!.
According to recent reports Europe is currently in the grips of the worst Winter in over some 3 Decades taking us back to the early 1980's, to date 21 lives have been lost with many businesses losing thousands in revenue. Authorities in Bulgaria said another two snowboarders died in an avalanche on Friday. The Bulgarian Red Cross said in a statement that their bodies were found at noon on Friday in the Pirin Mountains in the southwest of the country.
full report here.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/11/heavy-snowfall-causes-chaos-across-europe/
Heavy snowfall has caused chaos in Germany and Austria, as both countries remain on high alert. Several people have died in weather-related incidents. Troops have been deployed to help residents and helicopters are clearing snow from trees to stop it from falling on cars.
full report with videohere.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2019/jan/11/parts-of-europe-blanketed-by-heavy-snowfall-video
In Austria, hundreds of residents were stuck in their homes on Tuesday due to blocked roads and some regions experienced power outages after snow-laden trees took down power lines.
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/austria-weather-forecast-snow-report-avalanche-storms-latest-winter-storms/
Quote from Alexander Radlherr from Austria's Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics. "Such quantities of snow above 800m altitude only happen once every 30 to 100 years," Big statement!!. and a statement of interest considering the recent climate debate?.
In Sweden wintry storms ravaged parts of the north. One area recorded winds of 49.7m per second (111mph) as Storm Jan ravaged Stekenjokk near the Norwegian border.
In northern Norway, a lorry driver described on Friday morning how he and other drivers had been stuck on a mountain road since 17:00 (16:00 GMT) on Thursday. Magnar Nicolaisen told public broadcaster NRK that he had slept in his cabin overnight while others had had to stay in their cars. "i am 53 years old and i have never experienced conditions like this in my life" Big statement!
Conditions on Friday were particularly treacherous in Bavaria, where the local broadcaster said snowfalls were "paralysing public life".
Rail services were worst hit in the south and east of the state and roads were cut off by drifts and falling trees.
A boy of nine was killed near Munich when a tree collapsed under the weight of snow. It was 40 minutes before he was found and emergency services were unable to revive him. sad loss of life yet again.
Authorities in Greece reported travel disruptions due to snowfall in the north of the country. As the record-breaking snowfalls engulfed much of central Europe, bringing the Continent the coldest period in 120 years, a rare sight was seen: snow on Greek and Italian beaches, yet again Big statement and yes you read correctly 120 years!
The town of Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen became the fourth in southern Bavaria to have a state of emergency declared on Saturday, Issuing a statement "that currently a state of Emergency has been declared" "This is now a Life threatening incident- people should not continue to take to the Ski slopes" as rescue would be IMPOSSIBLE.
Recorded Temperatures of -23°c was recorded in Greece mid week.
Austrian military helicopters had to rescue 66 German teenagers from a mountain guest house on Friday where they had been stuck for several days.
In Salzburg, all parks, public gardens, play areas and cemeteries were closed Friday because of the danger of trees falling under the weight of snow.
In Norway, attempts to find the bodies of four skiers were again put on hold due to poor visibility and heavy snowfall. A 29-year Swedish woman and three Finns, aged 29, 32 and 36, were presumed dead after a 990-foot wide avalanche hit a valley near the northern city of Tromsoe last week, (this would make 25 Deaths).
Romanian police on Tuesday found the frozen body of a 67-year-old man in a parking lot in the southern city of Slatina after his wife reported he hadn’t returned from work. Temperatures in Romania plunged to a low of minus 11.2 Fahrenheit (-11.5°c).
In Krasnaya Polyana Russia Over the next 7 days another 104cms of fresh Snowfall is expected with Temperature nearing -38°c.
Heavy Snowfall again over the weekend for Germany Link below.
https://www.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/Germany/
So we move to the UK and ask "what does the remainder of winter hold for us"?
As we all know early 2018 seen a SSW during February that bought the UK a decent amount of Snowfall and lengthy spells of sub-zero Temperatures, right on Q early 2019 sees yet another SSW that is likely to impact NW Europe in coming weeks.
so what do the models say?
Let us first take a look at the GFS.
As you can see indications are for a pattern change going into the last weeks of January Although this will not be the "Beast from the east" there is an increasing chance of well below avg Temperatures moving in from the NW/N.
EPS
As above ECMWF Ensemble at this stage is in good agreement.
GFS Ensemble (22nd)
Good agreement from GFS/ECMWF Ensembles as of 22nd January.
GEM Ensemble.
Once again the GEM Ensemble is on board with the pattern change however shows some 48hrs later than the other Ensembles. (Still present).
Northern Hemisphere Blocking Pattern.
Signals are appearing in the GFS for high lat Blocking pattern set up and this is consistent with strat-Trop Downwelling, the AO oscillation pattern is currently -ve (negative).
As i ave mentioned our best chance of a "snow maker" comes from the NW as is most prominent at 20th-22nd January..below.
GIF of Snow totals here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eu&pkg=asnowd24&runtime=2019011212&fh=180
With this in mind i would like to wrap up the blog with the following.
Increasing risk of winter weather to the UK is likely going into wk3 of January and in my opinion Models will shortly pick up on surface feedbacks from the recent SSW, This period in my opinion will NOT be short lived and WILL carry through into February with the potential to even carry through well into March.
Thanks for stopping by Stay AWARE and stay SAFE.
David.
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