Hello and welcome to the blog.
Today we look at the progress of El Nino, firstly we will look at the OHC (Ocean Heat Content )of lat 5°N & 5°S.
From Feb-Apr it is notable that the eastern pacific 90-150W had below average SST's with the warm pool situated at 170W-160E.
May-August warmer SST's moved into the central Pacific region 3 & 3.4 and indications were looking good for an El Nino episode and this point.
During September it seemed that strong Westerly Kelvin waves moved into the central Pacific and easterly progression was looking good at this stage with SST's above the threshold of+0.5°c in all regions except 1+2.
It is then apparent El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average, however less strongly so. key atmospheric variables continue to show mainly ENSO-neutral patterns going into mid January with OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation ) remaining in the positive (loss to Space).
We can see this in the weekly ENSO index Below.
The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.
I am of the opinion that there is a very steep disagreement amongst the models suggesting that some are programmed a little "warm biased".
NCEP-GFS-ECMWF & UK Met Office have a more realistic outlook however i still believe this is a tad too emphatic given the current SST's across all regions.
the tide has now shifted to "watch status".
Note once again the absolute models is NASA GMAO, i really can not see where this projection comes from given the current lack of Atmospheric feedback. Especially given the current state of the SOI (SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX). which remains slightly positive overall.
Given the History of El Nino events it is very unlikely that JFM will see any significant increase in SST's across the Equatorial date line sufficient enough to take the ONI above .75-.85. A very weak Modoki is the best outlook going forward.
Thanks for stopping by
David.
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