Hello and welcome.
During the early hours of 20th August approx 02.00hrs HSSW impacted the Magnetosphere giving us a KP4 index.
There are currently 2 active regions on the disk with one sunspot region south of the equator.
The large coronal hole centre disk is producing HSSW and currently since 02.00hrs this has progressively risen to 637km/s. We can see the streams from image below, with active regions seen.
Solar wind speed.
When looking at Enlil Solar wind speed this was not projected, hence my hesitation to rely upon Enlil predictions, at no point does it suggest HSSW @ >600 km/s.
As below.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 August - 15 September 2018
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-27 Aug and again on 13-15 Sep due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 20-25 Aug, 03- 04 Sep, 07 Sep, and 11-15 Sep with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-21 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Current solar activity is indicative of solar minimum indices.
F10.7 Radio flux is averaged at 70 for the last 90 days and is expected to be within these parameters throughout September.
Thanks for stopping by
David.
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